Compromissos da Política Monetária para a Transição Verde
Uma Abordagem Teórica
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63207/vbhtze55Palavras-chave:
Política monetária, Política monetária verde, Senhoriagem, Bancos centraisResumo
Este artigo desenvolve um modelo teórico para analisar como a política monetária pode apoiar a transição verde quando o banco central não é totalmente independente. Uma função de gastos governamentais combina três canais de financiamento — tributação, criação de moeda para financiamento de déficit e acomodação monetária "verde" direcionada —, capturando a tensão institucional entre os objetivos climáticos e a estabilidade de preços. O modelo mostra que o impacto inflacionário da acomodação monetária verde difere da senhoriagem comum e depende criticamente da credibilidade do banco central. Quando a credibilidade é alta, a acomodação verde pode reduzir o custo efetivo do crédito e fomentar investimentos em baixo carbono com efeitos inflacionários modestos. Quando a credibilidade é fraca, suas consequências inflacionárias convergem para as da senhoriagem tradicional, e o incentivo para utilizá-la como financiamento disfarçado do déficit se fortalece. Os resultados sugerem que os formuladores de políticas devem fortalecer os mandatos e as estratégias de comunicação dos bancos centrais para preservar a credibilidade, coordenar o investimento climático com ferramentas fiscais transparentes e desenvolver dados padronizados sobre intervenções verdes, de modo que futuras avaliações empíricas possam orientar o desenho de estruturas monetárias sustentáveis.
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